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Project Management, Performance Measures, and Statistical Decision Making

Herding Cats

There is a current rash of suggestions on how to improve the performance of software projects. I work in the Software Intensive System of Systems domains in Aerospace, Defense, Enterprise IT (both commercial and government) applying Agile, Earned Value Management, Productive Statistical Estimating (both parametric and Monte Carlo), Risk Management, and Root Cause Analysis with a variety of capabilities. References below. . A Few References and Resources .

4 Fallacious Reasons to Estimate and Why Those Are Fallacious

Herding Cats

There's a recent post titled Four Fallacious Reasons to Estimate. It lists the usual suspects for why those spending the money think they don't have to estimate how much they plan to spend when they'll be done producing the value they've been assigned to produce for that expenditure. And like many posts and tweets about estimating, it's made from this point of view, not the business point view, not from the point of view of those paying the developer. IT Risk Management.

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Compendium of Works to Increase Probability of Project Success

Herding Cats

Business, Technical, Systems, Risk, and Project Management Briefings and Presentations. Project Performance Management (#PPM). Risk Management (#RM). Technical Performance Measures (#TPM). Cost, Schedule, and Technical Performance Management (#CSTPM). The overarching theme is focused on defining what Done looks like, assessing progress toward Done in units of measure meaningful to the decision makers. Project Performance Management.

2015 37

Deconstructing the Hertz and Accenture Debacle

Herding Cats

A recent lawsuit by Hertz Rental Car against Accenture has turned into a rallying cry by Agilest and No Estimates advocates. Of course, No Root Cause analysis has been performed by these advocates, but it makes good click bait for their followers. Root Cause Analysis is Risk Management, that asks the question what is the condition or activity that will create a risk to the success of our project? Were there: Measures of Effectiveness. Measures of Performance.

Integrated Master Plan - Revisited

Herding Cats

Designing, building, testing, and deploying complex systems is fraught with risk. And as always risk comes from uncertainty. Much has been written about the sources of risk and how to Manage in the Presence of Uncertainty (This briefing describes how risk is managed for each element of the Integrated Master Plan). . Transparent – Comprehensible display of what needs to be done and how completion is measured. Validate information with cross-references.

Cone of Uncertainty Bibliography

Herding Cats

I work in a domain where the CoU is baked into the Integrated Program Performance Management (IPPM) processes flowed down from the buyer, in this case, the Federal Government. The CoU paradigm defines the needed reduction in uncertainty is some performance metric. This can be the confidence in the estimate for any variable. It can be the needed performance of a measure - Effectiveness, Performance, Key Performance Parameter, or a Technical Performance Measures.

2017 32

Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects

Herding Cats

In a recent exchange in social media, it was clear the notion of risk and the sources of risk, the consequences or risks and managing in the presence of risk was in very unclear, when it was conjectured , we can simply slice the work into small bits and REDUCE risk. . First, the only risk that can be reduced is the risk created by Epistemic Uncertainty. Making things small does not reduce the risk it may make the uncertainty smaller.

2003 38

Decision Analysis - Ordinal and Cardinal Measures

Herding Cats

AHP is based on the principle that all measurements are relative. AHP provides a framework to make relative comparisons using a rational decision structure based on scaled pairwise comparisons (Borda Ranking) using a scale that converts stakeholder preferences and priorities into ratio measures. Using this method, the performance, cost, time, and risks of alternatives can be articulated as ratios that can then be compared with one another. References . [1]

2018 40

Fallacy of the Day

Herding Cats

Project Controls are Management Actions, either preplanned to achieve the desired result, or taken as a corrective measure prompted by the monitoring process. Project controls are concerned with the metrics of the project – quantities, time, cost, and other resources and their measurable beneficial outcomes for the project. In the Project Controls paradigm, Value is a measurable attribute of the project controls process - a Closed Loop Control measure.

2017 34

Microeconomics and Risk Management in Decision Making for Software Development

Herding Cats

When we hear about software development disasters and then hear that estimates are to blame, and NOT Estimating will somehow reduce or prevent these disasters, think again. Research clearly shows the root causes of most software projects cost and schedule overruns and technical shortfalls comes from poor risk management. Now To Risk Management. Risk is the effect of uncertainty of objectives. occurrence, or recurrence of the cause of the risk.

2007 32

What is the Management Reserve for Project Budgets?

Project Risk Coach

Unforeseen risks knock at your door. You look at your budget, but you don't have the funds to respond to these risks. Let's explore management reserves for projects, who controls them, and how to estimate the reserves. These risks are known – that is, they've been identified.

2021 247

9 Types of Artifacts in Project Management

Girl's Guide to PM

You might also here artifacts referred to as templates, documents, outputs or deliverables, but in all cases they relate to the work of managing the project, not the thing you are creating as the output of the project.

2021 318

Why Johnny Can't Do The Math

Herding Cats

In a previous post, Why Johnny Can't Estimate , mentioned some resources for estimating, the principles of business and technical management that demand estimates be made to make decisions, and background on the sources of uncertainty, that create risk, that require estimating to increase the probability of project success. One of the #Noestimates advocates has now discovered a phrase: Estimates are non-ergodic. References . [1]

Physical Percent Complete: Knowing When You Are Done

Herding Cats

The goal of every program manager is to have a set of practices that connect all the programmatic planning, risk, and performance information in a single unified view needed to support the decisions that increase the probability of success of any project or program. Currently, there is no single frame of reference to view the discipline, because it is multi-disciplinary. Cost is measured in dollars and schedule is measured in time. IT Risk Management.

2018 38

Project Management Process: The Basics

Clarizen

While it is a safe bet that Mr. Deming was not specifically or exclusively referring to the overall project management process, his wise advice – or if you wish, his stark warning – certainly applies. Risk management plan. Performance measurement baseline.

2021 96

Managing in Presence of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

This is an immutable principle that impacts planning, execution, performance measures, decision making, risk, budgeting, and overall business and technical management of the project and the business funding the project no matter the domain, context, technology or any methods. Do we have measures of Effectiveness, Performance, all the .ilities. Is each of these measures being met for the planned cost at the planned time? . References.

Start with Principles, Not Personal Anecdotes

Herding Cats

I've seen estimates abused by bad managers, so let's NOT estimate and that will fix the behavior of Bad Managers." While the human behaviors are real and observable, conjecturing that decisions can be made in the presence of uncertainty without estimating the outcome of those decisions, there is no principle to support that conjecture. The first thing to do is NOT fall for the fallacy that NOT Estimating will fix the behavior of the bad manager. IT Risk Management.

2018 39

Different Project Management Terms Beginners Should Know

ProProfs Project Management

It refers to a set of methodologies utilized to meet the ever-changing client requirements. An assumption in project management refers to assuming about possible factors or situations that may occur in the project planning process that it may actually happen. Qualitative Risk Analysis.

The Complete Glossary of 614 Project Management Terms

Workamajig

Bookmark this project management glossary and refer to it whenever you come across any project management jargon. Accept: A response to a project risk where the project manager accepts the risk and takes no action to evade it, i.e. 'accepting' the risk.

2021 78

What's Missing from the Agile Software Development Paradigm

Herding Cats

The customer is accountable for knowing what Done Looks Like (in Unity of measure meaningful to their domain). The results include system-level qualities, properties, characteristics, functions, behavior, and performance. Systems Engineering assess the processes for achieving stakeholder functional, physical, and operational performance requirements in the intended use environment over the planned life of the system within cost, schedule, and internal and external constraints.

Project Management Glossary: 200+ Terms PMs Frequently Use

Epicflow Blog

Activity Duration Estimates Review . is a process of detecting risks related to the time allowances for activities in particular or a project in general, with the width of estimates range indicating a respective level of risk. It contains all the details about the tasks a project team has to perform. . Analogous Estimating . is a randomly chosen amount of time a task can be postponed without risk of delaying the project completion moment.

Project Management Glossary: 200+ Terms PMs Frequently Use

Epicflow Blog

Activity Duration Estimates Review . is a process of detecting risks related to the time allowances for activities in particular or a project in general, with the width of estimates range indicating a respective level of risk. It contains all the details about the tasks a project team has to perform. . Analogous Estimating . is a randomly chosen amount of time a task can be postponed without risk of delaying the project completion moment.

Invoking "Laws" Without a Domain or Context

Herding Cats

Newton's Law(s), there are three of them: First law: When viewed in an inertial reference frame, an object either remains at rest or continues to move at a constant velocity, unless acted upon by a net force. Second law: In an inertial reference frame, the vector sum of the forces F on an object is equal to the mass m of that object multiplied by the acceleration vector a of the object: F = ma. Without setting a target to measure against, we have: No baseline control.

2016 36

Applying Project Management Concepts in Real-life Projects

iZenBridge

In such projects, since we are using progressive planning, we usually don’t compare progress against baseline.Other types of measurements could be used here such as: What was the plan? So, while the reports and measurement systems may compare against budget, it is not as simple as comparing the earned value against first baseline as baselines are getting revised. In such cases, your baseline varies as your estimations get refined.