Estimating Agile Projects.Or Not

Mike Griffiths

Project managers generally like plans and estimates so we can forecast when things should be done and how much they may cost. " So, when project managers hear about ideas such as "let's stop estimating," it can trigger a knee-jerk reaction.

Software Estimating Resources

Herding Cats

This blog page is dedicated to the resources used to estimate software-intensive systems using traditional and agile development methods. The reason for this resource page is the lack of understanding of how to estimate, the urban myths about software estimating, and the fallacies that estimating is not needed, when developing software, in the presence of uncertainty, when spending other peoples money. 179, 2006. Estimating Probable System Cost,” Stephen A.

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Estimating is a Learned Skill

Herding Cats

Estimating is a learned skill, used for any purpose from every-day life to management of projects. When I left for the airport this morning to catch my flight to a customer site I estimated, given the conditions, how much time I need to get to my favorite parking spot at DIA. The same process for estimating is applied to multi-billion dollar projects we work. Here's some materials that provide the tools and processes needed to learn how to estimate. 3, August 2006, pp.

Basis of Estimating Software Development

Small Business CEO

The estimating of software development is both straightforward and complex. When it is suggested that estimating is hard, of no value, and unnecessary, always ask what principle is used to support that claim? Here are some resources that will provide guidance to produce credible software development estimates, in both traditional and agile domains. Software Sizing and Estimating: Mk II FPA , Charles Symons, John Wiley & Sons, 1991.

Creating a Risk-Adjusted Backlog

Mike Griffiths

While profit is not their goal, usually an economic impact figure can be estimated for the outcomes they aim to achieve. I wrote about these ideas when I started blogging in 2006 as  Risk Profile Graphs.

Risk 81

Project Management, Performance Measures, and Statistical Decision Making

Herding Cats

I work in the Software Intensive System of Systems domains in Aerospace, Defense, Enterprise IT (both commercial and government) applying Agile, Earned Value Management, Productive Statistical Estimating (both parametric and Monte Carlo), Risk Management, and Root Cause Analysis with a variety of capabilities. This is from one of our presentations from a International Cost Estimating and Analysis Association meeting on the same topic. GAO cost estimating and assessment guide.

A Compendium of Works to Increase the Probability of Project Success

Herding Cats

Event-Based Scheduling , 10 November 2006. How to Develop Credible Cost & Schedule Estimate. Estimating and Reporting Agile Projects using the SRDR and Earned Value Management , PSM Users Group 2017, 12-16 June 2017, Crystal City, VA. Estimating and Reporting Physical Percent Complete on Agile Projects , DHS Cost Analysis Stakeholder Working Group, June 26, 2017. How Should We Estimate Agile Software Development Projects and What Data Do We Need ?,

2008 45

Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects

Herding Cats

But when some statement is made about risk, estimating, performance modeling, or the like - always ask for references. Stewart, ACTEX Publications, 2006. Loch, Arnoud DeMeyer, and Michael Pich, Wiley, 2006. NoEstimates Estimating Risk

2003 38

DDSTOP The Saga Continues

Herding Cats

Yet another class #NoEstimates lack of understanding of estimating, reference class forecasting, reference class databases, parametric estimating, estimating tools, and other well established estimating processes in the agile software development world. maybe a read of the resources of Estimating Agile Software Development may help. Subscribe to one of several reference class estimating sites. Buy a Software Estimating tool, like one of these.

2019 34

DDSTOP The Saga Continues

Herding Cats

40 - Estimation is a Problematic Practice of Companies Doing Dangerous Things. A #Noestimates advocate makes the claim that having a ±10% accuracy for estimates of cost and duration is a dangerous thing. With what appears to be NO understanding of how to estimate, this author ignores the processes used in developing products or services in the presence of uncertainty. Define the probabilistic ranges of the work in a single point estimate manner. All by NOT Estimating?

2019 37

Cone of Uncertainty - Revisited

Herding Cats

The Cone of Uncertainty,” Stephen Gryphon, Phillippe Kruchten, and Steve McConnell, Letters, IEEE Software , 23 (5) 2006, pp 8?10. Reducing Estimation Uncertainty with Continuous Assessment: Tracking the 'Cone of Uncertainty’” Pongtip Aroonvatanaporn, Chatchai Sinthop and Barry Boehm, Center for Systems and Software Engineering University of Southern California , Los Angeles, CA 90089, ASE’10 , September 20–24, 2010, Antwerp, Belgium, 2010.

2012 28

Resources for Cone of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

Some feel that the cone does not provide any value for the work they do and does not match the reducing uncertainty in their estimates. First, the Cone of Uncertainty is a Principle used to define the needed reduction in the variances of estimates on Programs. From his article in an IEEE magazine often quoted by No Estimates advocates. . In particular, he wonders whether estimates for work remaining are better (obviously, uncertainty’s not an issue for work already done).

2007 32

Microeconomics and Risk Management in Decision Making for Software Development

Herding Cats

When we hear about software development disasters and then hear that estimates are to blame, and NOT Estimating will somehow reduce or prevent these disasters, think again. Each of the categories operates in the presence of uncertainty and requires that estimates be made about the probability, conseqeunce of the resutling risk. Managing in the presence of uncertainty requires we make estimates and act accordingly to the results of these estimates.

2007 32

DDSTOP The Saga Continues

Herding Cats

These are classic examples from an author who is either unskilled, untrained, and inexperienced in estimating software development. Or who willfully ignores the knowledge and resources readily available in textbooks, papers, tools, and training for how to create credible estimates for software systems. What these quotes actually say is I have no intention of learning how to estimate cost, schedule, and technical performance because I don't want to. By simply NOT Estimating?

2018 33

Compendium of Works to Increase Probability of Project Success

Herding Cats

Learning how to address one of the problems found in projects is the subject of this Brown Bag talk, 10 November 2006. Cost and schedule growth for federal programs is created by unrealistic technical performance expectations, unrealistic cost and schedule estimates, inadequate risk assessments, unanticipated technical issues, and poorly performed and ineffective risk management, all contributing to program technical and programmatic shortfalls.

2019 37

Misunderstanding Making Decisions in the Presence of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

What happens if you shift focus from "accurate estimation" to "reliably shipping by a date"? . If your project has no uncertainty, there is no need to estimate. The notion (as suggested in the quote) of shifting from accurate (what ever that means) ways of estimating to reliability shipping be a date is not physically possible since the irreducible and reducible uncertainties are always present. All estimates have precision and accuracy.

The Myth of Standish Reports - Update Number 2

Herding Cats

8, pages 15-16, August 2006. Three Increasingly Mature Views of Estimate Making in IT Projects. NoEstimates Agile Business Estimating Principles Project ManagementThe Standish Report is raising its head again in the Agile presentations I've seen recently at conferences. Forgetting for the moment all the past "criticisms" of Standish. Standish Report. Standish Report and Naive Statistics. Finally a Challenge to the Standish Report.

2016 32

Cone of Uncertainty - Part Cinq

Herding Cats

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). Estimates of cost, schedule, technical performance on the left side of the cone have a lower probability of being precise and accurate than estimates on the right side of the cone. The BLUE bars are the probabilistic ranges of the current estimate date.

2017 33

The Trouble with Charts

Herding Cats

The other statistical issue is the chart showing #Noestimates versus other types of estimates. But the sample space of the total population of projects with #Noestmates as their estimating technique is only 3% of the total population. The chart (top chart) shows a number for predictability for No Estimates and a similar number for predictability for Light Weight Scrum. Maybe 11 to 12 for No Estimates and maybe some less than 15 for Light Weight Scrum, say 13. .

2017 34

Cone of Uncertainty - Part Trois

Herding Cats

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). Estimates of cost, schedule, technical performance on the left side of the cone have a lower probability of being precise and accurate than estimates on the right side of the cone. The BLUE bars are the probabilistic ranges of the current estimate date.

2017 28

Cone of Uncertainty - Part Cinq (Updated)

Herding Cats

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). Estimates of cost, schedule, technical performance on the left side of the cone have a lower probability of being precise and accurate than estimates on the right side of the cone. Estimates are needed but are subject to large level of uncertainty.

2017 30

Quote of the Day

Herding Cats

Making decisions in the presence of uncertainty requires estimating the outcomes of those decisions. Any conjecture claiming decision can be made in the presence of uncertainty without estimates is a fallacy. 212279, February 2006. Why Guessing is not Estimating and Estimating is not Guessing. Herding Cats: Why Estimates are Needed for Success in the Nondeterministic Universe Uncertainty is the consequence of all complex systems.

2006 30

Practical Fibonacci: A Beginner's Guide to Relative Sizing

Scrum.org

O verview of Agile Estimating. When more is known than unknown, use absolute estimating. Absolute estimating is the practice of applying an hourly, finite estimate to each requirement. I have little experience or high time pressure; therefore, the estimate is influenced.

2021 77

Quote of the Day

Herding Cats

Making decisions in the presence of uncertainty requires estimating the outcomes of those decisions. Any conjecture claiming decision can be made in the presence of uncertainty without estimates is a fallacy. 212279, February 2006. Why Guessing is not Estimating and Estimating is not Guessing. Herding Cats: Why Estimates are Needed for Success in the Nondeterministic Universe Uncertainty is the consequence of all complex systems.

2006 28

Strategic Project Management: How To Align Work With Business Goals?

Teamweek

It has been around since 2006. Get early project estimates. Before including a project into your portfolio, ensure that you have at least a high-level project roadmap with estimates of the time, money, and skills needed. Every business works towards meeting a set of objectives.

2021 75

Agile & Project PPM: The Better Together Story

MPUG

As a Microsoft Project MVP since 2006, it has been an amazing journey for me to watch the Microsoft engineering team move from a Waterfall software development program to an Agile one by fully utilizing Project/Project Server. Agile PPM & Project. Several years ago, Microsoft outlined their commitment to providing better experiences and richer capabilities to users of MS Project. One of the key investment areas was Agile. We have seen this evidenced with new tools coming forward.

2019 72

Project Portfolio Management Works for More Than Just IT

Meisterplan

In 2006, Anand Sanwal, CEO of CB Insights, and former VP of American Express, said, “I remain amazed at how the entire portfolio management discipline has become largely focused on enabling corporate portfolio management for IT investments. Collect – gathering new project proposals Project proposals should include a brief description of the project idea, the benefit the project will bring based on the evaluation criteria, and a rough estimate of the efforts required.

The 23 Best Project Management Books For Upgrading Your Career in 2020

Planio

However, while this book covers basics like estimating and planning projects, where it shines is in covering the soft skills of project management. Published date: 2006 (Revised edition). Published date: 2006 (Revised edition).

2020 124

Symptoms versus Root Causes

Herding Cats

There is a popular graph showing project performance versus the estimated project performance in " Schedule Estimation and Uncertainty Surrounding the Cone of Uncertainty ," Todd Little, IEEE Software , May/June 2006. . This chart (above) shows data from samples of software development projects and is used by many in the agile community and by #NoEstimates advocates to conjecture that estimates are usually wrong. It starts with the notion of an ideal estimate.

2016 30

Deconstructing The Cone of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

The paper on the Cone of Uncertainty is used by many in the No Estimates community as an example of why estimates are of little use. In this paper, there is data that does not follow the Cone of Uncertainty, in that the uncertainty of the estimates does not reduce as the project proceeds. There are projects did not follow the plan for reducing uncertainty in the estimates. Domain-Based Effort Distribution Model for Software Cost Estimation,: Thomas Tan, Ph.D.

2017 37

Wrike Review- 10 facts you should know

Binfire

Wrike was funded in 2006 by Andrew Filev and has locations in California, Ireland, and Russia. . Lacks proper task estimation tools. It does not adjust the estimation when things go wrong. Wrike is a popular project management application. It is used in various industries and team sizes all over the world. In this article, we cover what is good about this application, what is bad, facts you need to know before purchasing it, and how it stacks up against the competition.

2018 73

In-Depth: How Easily Biases Distort What We Believe (In The Workplace)

Scrum.org

More recent analyses have shown that this bias isn’t as fundamental as previously thought (Malle, 2006). When teams estimate work, hearing an initial estimate is likely to “anchor” further estimates. 2006).

2020 72

The Best Time Tracking Software of 2018

Paymo App

Improve time estimates: You can use p reviously tracked time entries as the main indicator for your future projects. Through them, you’ll make better estimates for following tasks and set more accurate deadlines for similar projects. 5) Accounting: Generate invoices based on the amount of time spent on tasks or projects, track expenses, or create estimates for clients. Launched in 2006, they aim to do things the Harvest way. Published: February 2018.

2018 63

Risk Management Resources

Herding Cats

requires making estimates) ? México, 1 al 3 de Febrero de 2006. Estimation of Long?Term Risk Analysis & Estimating Uncertainty … and what this has to do with the price of milk in McLean,” Phil Beenhouwer, The Society of Cost Estimating & Analysis (SCEA), May 17, 2006. Estimating of Value at Risk: Extreme Value and Robust Approaches,” Grazyna Trzpiot and Justyna Majewska, Operations Research Decisions , No.

Risk 35

A Compendium of Risk Management Resources

Herding Cats

requires making estimates) ? México, 1 al 3 de Febrero de 2006. Estimation of Long?Term Risk Analysis & Estimating Uncertainty … and what this has to do with the price of milk in McLean,” Phil Beenhouwer, The Society of Cost Estimating & Analysis (SCEA), May 17, 2006. Estimating of Value at Risk: Extreme Value and Robust Approaches,” Grazyna Trzpiot and Justyna Majewska, Operations Research Decisions , No.

2012 33

An In-Depth Look at the Top 8 Modern Project Management Tools

Paymo App

Accounting: Generate invoices based on the amount of time spent on a task or project, track your expenses and create accurate estimates for clients. Founded in 2006, Wrike has grown to an international team of around 500 people serving 14,000 companies and over a million users. Project management tools have come a long way in the last few years. We thought it was about time for a detailed article about the modern tools designed to support the ways teams work today.

2017 82

Wrike vs Asana – which PM tool works best for YOU?

BeeWits

Founded in 2006 by Andrew Filev, it is today one of the top project management solutions powering thousands of businesses, in fact, the service is today used by more than 12,000 companies worldwide, competing with likes of Basecamp, Jira, Trello, Teamwork and of course, Asana amongst plenty of others. Gantt Chart – again, a view for project managers which allows the responsible persons for this project to estimate the start and end, the full timeline of the project.

2018 29

Product Discovery Anti-Patterns Leading to Failure

Scrum.org

Example : The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (just between you and me) from August 2nd, 2006.). It could handle the tactical or strategic nature of the suggestion, a possible time-frame, or an estimate of the expected return on investment. TL; DR: Product Discovery Anti-Patterns.

2021 52

Modeling the Future is the Basis of Project Success

Herding Cats

The previous approaches to project performance management and production of the Estimate to Complete and Estimate at Completion make use of past performance. Modeling Project Behaviour," Alberto De Marco, Time Management, Methodology, Cost Control, Skill Development , 2006. "Is Estimating Models for Program Management," Norman Womer and Jeff Cman, Final Technical Reports, N00014-00-1-0280, Unversity of Mississippi, 2003. There's a notion going around that. “I

2018 36