Time Estimation for Project Managers: Tips & Techniques

ProjectManager.com

The best a project manager can do is develop an accurate time estimate for how long it will take to satisfactorily complete the project. Time Estimation Matters. A 2018 study by the Project Management Institute (PMI), in its Pulse of the Profession report, stated that poor time estimating is the root cause for 25 percent of failed projects. Looking into the future to determine how much time it will take complete project tasks allows for an estimation.

Software Estimating Resources

Herding Cats

This blog page is dedicated to the resources used to estimate software-intensive systems using traditional and agile development methods. The reason for this resource page is the lack of understanding of how to estimate, the urban myths about software estimating, and the fallacies that estimating is not needed, when developing software, in the presence of uncertainty, when spending other peoples money. Estimating Probable System Cost,” Stephen A. 3, July 2011.

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Estimating is a Learned Skill

Herding Cats

Estimating is a learned skill, used for any purpose from every-day life to management of projects. When I left for the airport this morning to catch my flight to a customer site I estimated, given the conditions, how much time I need to get to my favorite parking spot at DIA. The same process for estimating is applied to multi-billion dollar projects we work. Here's some materials that provide the tools and processes needed to learn how to estimate. 2011).

Basis of Estimating Software Development

Herding Cats

The estimating of software development is both straightforward and complex. When it is suggested that estimating is hard, of no value, and unnecessary, always ask what principle is used to support that claim? Here are some resources that will provide guidance to produce credible software development estimates, in both traditional and agile domains. Software Sizing and Estimating: Mk II FPA , Charles Symons, John Wiley & Sons, 1991.

A Compendium of Works to Increase the Probability of Project Success

Herding Cats

Establishing the Performance Measurement Baseline (PMB) , AACE Workshop, Denver, Colorado, April 16, 2011. Establishing the Performance Measurement Baseline , AACE Workshop , April 16, 2011. Earned Value + Agile = Success , National Defense Industry Association (NDIA) Conference, 4-6 April 2011, Baltimore, MD. How to Develop Credible Cost & Schedule Estimate. How Should We Estimate Agile Software Development Projects and What Data Do We Need ?,

2003 45

Reading List for the Cone of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

The primary purpose of software estimation is not to predict a project’s outcome; it is to determine whether a project’s targets are realistic enough to allow the project to be controlled to meet them ? The beginning of all business critical software development projects is the point in time when performing organizations are least certain about the project, yet it is also the time when top management expects to be delivered project estimates that are very precise. 1, January 2011.

2012 41

Compendium of Works to Increase Probability of Project Success

Herding Cats

PMI EVM Community of Practice, EVM World , May 16-18 2011. Establishing the Performance Measurement Baseline - The PMB is the time-phased schedule for all the work to be performed, the budgeted cost for this work, and the organizational elements that produce the deliverables for this work, AACE Workshop , April 16, 2011. The starting point is understanding what processes make up the discipline of estimating.

2003 37

Quote of the Day

Herding Cats

In all cases, the assessment of these uncertainties and their impacts on the decision-makers ability to make a risk-informed decision requires estimates to be made. . No risk-informed decision can be made in the presence of uncertainty without estimating. No matter how many times, #NoEstimates claim this can be done, it is simply not possible in any principle-based sense to make a credible decision in the presence of uncertainty without estimating. [1]

2011 30

Misunderstanding Making Decisions in the Presence of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

What happens if you shift focus from "accurate estimation" to "reliably shipping by a date"? . If your project has no uncertainty, there is no need to estimate. The notion (as suggested in the quote) of shifting from accurate (what ever that means) ways of estimating to reliability shipping be a date is not physically possible since the irreducible and reducible uncertainties are always present. All estimates have precision and accuracy. 2011. “ November 2011.

Microeconomics and Risk Management in Decision Making for Software Development

Herding Cats

When we hear about software development disasters and then hear that estimates are to blame, and NOT Estimating will somehow reduce or prevent these disasters, think again. Each of the categories operates in the presence of uncertainty and requires that estimates be made about the probability, conseqeunce of the resutling risk. Managing in the presence of uncertainty requires we make estimates and act accordingly to the results of these estimates.

2007 32

Biases in Project Management and How to Remove Them

Herding Cats

There is always lots of complaining about the biases introduced into managing projects and making the estimates needed to make project decisions. 9, January 2011. [6] Decision Making Economics Estimating Governance Management Mathematics Performance-Based Project Management® Planning Principles Product Management Project Management Scheduling Technical Performance Measures

Process Reduces Agility? Only on De Minimis Projects

Herding Cats

Agile Development of Safety-Critical Software , Matti Vuori, Tampre University of Technology, 2011. When managing any project as Risk Managers as Tim Lister suggested, we need to make estimates in the presence of these uncertainties as well. NoEstimates Agile Estimating RiskA popular toss off aphrase in some agile circles is process reduces agility. This is course is stated in the absence of any domain or context.

Biases in Project Management and How to Remove Them

Herding Cats

There is always lots of complaining about the biases introduced into managing projects and making the estimates needed to make project decisions. 9, January 2011. [6] Decision Making Economics Estimating Governance Management Mathematics Performance-Based Project Management® Planning Principles Product Management Project Management Scheduling Technical Performance Measures

The 18 Most Influential People in Project Management

ProjectManager.com

Bridges also is a highly influential YouTube personality who has created hundreds of videos on project management and leadership which have earned well over 10 million views since 2011. Project management is an increasingly diverse field. Individuals across industries, and with varying levels of experience, are providing a substantial impact to its growth and continued evolution.

2019 329

Quote of the Day

Herding Cats

Making decisions in the presence of uncertainty requires estimating the outcomes of those decisions. Any conjecture claiming decision can be made in the presence of uncertainty without estimates is a fallacy. Project Risk Management Processes: Improving Coordination using a Clustering Approach,” Research in Engineering Design, Springer, 2011, pp. Editors, Springer, 2011. Why Guessing is not Estimating and Estimating is not Guessing.

2005 30

So what’s in your company’s project management dictionary?

Kiron Bondale

Let’s consider a team’s degree of confidence in its estimates. A project funding policy might require that team submitting detailed estimates should have a confidence of ±5% but what does that really mean? However this should not deter organizations from establishing a minimum set of qualifications to prevent this scenario from a 2011 Dilbert comic. We often joke that the only correct answer to a project management question is “ It depends!

2016 144

Quote of the Day

Herding Cats

Making decisions in the presence of uncertainty requires estimating the outcomes of those decisions. Any conjecture claiming decision can be made in the presence of uncertainty without estimates is a fallacy. Project Risk Management Processes: Improving Coordination using a Clustering Approach,” Research in Engineering Design, Springer, 2011, pp. Editors, Springer, 2011. Why Guessing is not Estimating and Estimating is not Guessing.

2005 28

How good are you at starting off your project?

Ron Rosenhead

It is called “Initiating successful projects” and was first published in December 2011. Scope is not clear and while initial capital costs are identified (often with over optimistic estimates) post project running costs are frequently ignored. I came across an interesting report published by the National Audit Office (NAO) – which exists to provide independent opinion and evidence to assist Parliament and hold government to account.

2015 159

KanbanFlow vs Trello – Who Wins the Battle?

nTask

The application was launched in 2011 and is a sweetheart of Kanban lovers all across the organizational paradigm. Cost estimating.

2020 101

Treat Cause Not The Symptom

Herding Cats

Center for Strategic and International Studies, April 2011. Herding Cats: Principles of Cost and Schedule Estimating. Why Guessing is not Estimating and Estimating is not Guessing. When gaps in performance, benefits shortfalls, unanticipated cost, schedule, and performance variances, faulty products, or any undesirable outcome, blame the process, not people. Root Cause Analysis is the means to fix the cause, rather than treat the symptom. [1][2]. 1][2].

2008 32

A Beginner’s Guide to Scrum Ceremonies

ProjectManager.com

Together, they estimate what it will take to complete the items on the list. It was first officially noted in the 2011 Scrum Guide. The secret to scrum is simplicity, even in the face of complexity. And although scrum is simple at heart, it can be difficult to master. Scrum requires self-organizing teams that can quickly solve problems in unpredictable environments.

2019 218

Software Review: Roadmap Planner [2017]

Girl's Guide to PM

Software review: TeamworkPM [2011] General information Name: TeamworkPM Vendor: Digital Crew Application Developers Hosting options: Web hosted version only Cost and plans: 30 day free trial. Software review: Simplestimate [2016] Find out more about how to make estimating simple with this software review of Simplestimate. General Information. Name: Roadmap Planner. Vendor: KeepSolid Inc. Hosting options: iOS and macOS downloads (no Windows option yet).

2017 242

Software Review: Roadmap Planner [2017]

Girl's Guide to PM

Software review: TeamworkPM [2011] General information Name: TeamworkPM Vendor: Digital Crew Application Developers Hosting options: Web hosted version only Cost and plans: 30 day free trial. Software review: Simplestimate [2016] Find out more about how to make estimating simple with this software review of Simplestimate. General Information. Name: Roadmap Planner. Vendor: KeepSolid Inc. Hosting options: iOS and macOS downloads (no Windows option yet).

2017 225

Software Review: ProjectManager.com [2016]

Girl's Guide to PM

Software review: Simplestimate [2016] Find out more about how to make estimating simple with this software review of Simplestimate. Software review: RationalPlan [2011] General information Name: RationalPlan Vendor: Stand by Soft Ltd Hosting options: Locally hosted. General information. I last reviewed ProjectManager.com in 2013. Time to revisit the software and see what has changed. Name: ProjectManager.com. Vendor: ProjectManager.com. Hosting options: Online.

2016 181

Top Solutions to Project Failure – Epicflow Research Part 2

Epicflow Blog

Victorine Ghobeira , a Senior Business Analyst and Project Manager at Dataquest, says that “preventing a lack of resource starts when defining and estimating activities and leads to creating a realistic schedule. Which will lead to setup of a detailed grid of the resources available and needed throughout the project and use it as a great tool against which you can estimate, compare and prevent lack of resources with the situation at hand.”.

2019 63

Risk Management Resources

Herding Cats

requires making estimates) ? 5, September/October 2011. 1, 2011. A Simulation-Based Risk Network Model for Decision Support in Project Risk Management,” Chao Fang and Franck Marle, in Decision Support Systems , Elsevier, 2011. A Simulation-Based Risk Network Model for Decision Support in Project Risk Management,” Chao Fang and Franck Marle, Decision Support Systems , Elsevier, 2011. “A Estimation of Long?Term 5, September/October 2011. “A

Risk 35

A Compendium of Risk Management Resources

Herding Cats

requires making estimates) ? 5, September/October 2011. 1, 2011. A Simulation-Based Risk Network Model for Decision Support in Project Risk Management,” Chao Fang and Franck Marle, in Decision Support Systems , Elsevier, 2011. A Simulation-Based Risk Network Model for Decision Support in Project Risk Management,” Chao Fang and Franck Marle, Decision Support Systems , Elsevier, 2011. “A Estimation of Long?Term 5, September/October 2011. “A

Risk 33

In-Depth: How Easily Biases Distort What We Believe (In The Workplace)

Scrum.org

Ross & Nisbett (2011) offer an extensive overview of research in this area. . When teams estimate work, hearing an initial estimate is likely to “anchor” further estimates. 2011). In this series of ‘In-depth’-posts, we take time to consider the bigger picture.

2020 85

The Role of Traffic Managers and Production Managers in Marketing Agencies

Function Point

Editor’s Note: This post was originally published in November 2011 and has been updated for accuracy and comprehensiveness. On top of this, they may also be involved in estimating agency time, pricing agency services, and working with freelancers, outside producers and vendors. This role helps account executives estimate and price the work they are trying to sell as well as help the agency find the best deals and practices on externals cost.

2016 40

The Role of Traffic Managers and Production Managers in Marketing Agencies

Function Point

Editor’s Note: This post was originally published in November 2011 and has been updated for accuracy and comprehensiveness. On top of this, they may also be involved in estimating agency time, pricing agency services, and working with freelancers, outside producers and vendors. This role helps account executives estimate and price the work they are trying to sell as well as help the agency find the best deals and practices on externals cost.

2016 40

Product Discovery Anti-Patterns Leading to Failure

Scrum.org

2) In Chapter 2—“The Meaning of Labor”—of his book “ The Upside of Irrationality ,” Dan Ariely describes an experiment dubbed the ‘Building of Bionicles’ (Paperback edition 2011, pages 66 to 77) where Harvard University students were paid to assemble Lego figures.

2021 75

Little's Law - Use, Misuse, and Sometimes Simply Wrong Ideas

Herding Cats

Then we have to Estimate what these measures need to be so the third variable of Little's Law can be Calculated. It has been suggested that with Little's Law No Estimates (#NoEstimates) can be applied. So estimates are needed to produce numbers for this demand, rather than measuring the demand. Estimating Average Production INtervals Using Inventory Measurements: Little's Law for Partially Observable Processes," Ardavan Nozari and Ward Whitt, Operations Research , Vol.

2017 32

Trello vs Asana vs Toggl Plan: What’s the Best Project Management Tool (2020)

Teamweek

Trello started in 2011 as a tool for software development teams. Toggl Plan (previously Teamweek) started in 2011 as an in-house project for Toggl — a time tracking tool. Team members can also add a daily estimate in hours for each task. Looking at these granular estimates helps ensure that team members are not overwhelmed or underworked, and projects are adequately staffed. Trello and Asana are two popular project management tools.

2020 40

Success in Disruptive Times: PMI’s 2018 Pulse of the Profession

Online PM Courses

That’s Figure 6, which tracks five project performance metrics annually, from 2011 to 2018. I have extracted estimates of the data by reading from that chart, for the two highest level metrics ( ‘Met original goals/business intent’ and ‘Deemed failures’ ). The PMI has titled its 2018 Pulse of the Profession report: Success in Disruptive Times. As with previous reports, Success in Disruptive Times is filled with fascinating data and valuable insights.

2018 83

My Journey as a Scrum Master

Scrum.org

If only we would create more accurate estimates…. In hindsight, I already started writing the paper “ The 8 Stances of a Scrum Master ” around 2011–2014, although it was published via Scrum.org years later. Let’s start with a word of warning. This can be considered as a long article. To help you out, I divided the article into two parts. The first part contains my personal journey in becoming a Scrum Master, the second part includes recommendations for new Scrum Masters.

2019 69

12 Best Mavenlink Alternatives for Project Management in 2020 (Free and Paid)

Workzone

Proofhub is a project planning software tool launched in 2011. It can help provide cross-department insights to determine risk, scope, size, and estimates of larger, company-wide projects. There are no shortage of Mavenlink alternatives. Popular amoung enterprise teams, Mavenlink finds uses across professional service businesses such as marketing, advertising, public relations, architecture, engineering, IT services, management consulting, and education.

Modeling the Future is the Basis of Project Success

Herding Cats

The previous approaches to project performance management and production of the Estimate to Complete and Estimate at Completion make use of past performance. Estimating Models for Program Management," Norman Womer and Jeff Cman, Final Technical Reports, N00014-00-1-0280, Unversity of Mississippi, 2003. There's a notion going around that. “I I don’t believe you can make a model of a possible future.”.

Complete Collection of Project Management Statistics 2015

Wrike

earned an average of 16% more (approximately $14,500 ) than their non-credentialed peers in 2011. [6]. Estimated Project-Oriented Job Openings 2010-2020: . Inadequate cost estimates – 29%. Inaccurate task time estimate – 27%. Need up-to-date facts and figures for a project management report, article, or infographic? Browse this collection of project management statistics collected from studies and reports from the past five years.

2015 49

53 Best Project Management Software Solutions for Your Team

Workzone

I also feel it’s really easy to sit down with someone and map out a new project, including dependent tasks, hour estimates, and so on, without having to worry that it will be a pain for someone to implement – we can brainstorm how things will go, map it out, then simply drop it into the system ”. Proofhub is an all-in-one project planning software that was launched in 2011. . It’s also a poor choice if you’re concerned with monitoring budgets or estimates.